Friday, April 13, 2012

Sell Hindustan Unilever, stop loss at Rs 431

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, “Hindustan Unilever (HUL) has rallied today and then now it is closing at its lows, that tell us that at least in the short term this rally is over and a fairly decent correction can be expected on the downside. So buy puts or consider selling futures with an appropriate stop loss around Rs 431-432.”

He further added, “Next week I will keep financials on my radar, the banks have to be kept on the radar because they have rallied a lot and there is also a big news event which will affect banks directly. So it’s Axis Bank , ICICI Bank and Bank of Baroda , Canara Bank , all four of them to be mixed, divided into two Axis Bank and ICICI Bank for buying and Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank for selling if the news is against them.”

Buy Infosys; target Rs 2,792

Angel Broking is bullish on Infosys and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,792 in its April 13, 2012 research report.

"For 4QFY2012, Infosys' results came in lower than our as well as street's expectations on revenue as well as operating front; however, the company's profit came in line with the expectations because of higher other income. The major disappointment came from the FY2013 USD revenue growth guidance which came in at 8-10%, much below Nasscom's estimated growth of 11-14% which is highly negative. In addition, the company gave tepid USD revenue guidance for 1QFY2013 of 0-1% qoq."

"For 4QFY2012, Infosys reported revenue of US$1,771mn, down 1.9% qoq, due to ramp down in certain projects in financial services industry especially in the North America geography. The company's EBITDA and EBIT declined by 108bp and 128bp to 32.6% and 29.9%, respectively, largely because of gaining from INR depreciation. PAT came in at Rs 2,316cr, aided by other income of Rs 652cr as against Rs 422cr in 3QFY2012."

"Management commentary has turned extremely cautious for the next year's budget flush pattern. Also, the company is witnessing delays in ramp-ups of the deals being signed. This is clearly reflected in management's disappointing FY2013 guidance of merely 8-10%. In addition, for 1QFY2013, management has given USD revenue growth guidance of 0-1% qoq which indicates that management is banking on back ended growth which makes us cautious as the second half of every fiscal year is typically slow. If Infosys meets its 1QFY2013 guidance, then to achieve its full year FY2013 guidance, the company requires above 4.2% qoq USD revenue growth each quarter from 2QFY2012. Hence, we have assumed moderation in demand going forward in FY2013 and have built in a USD revenue growth of 9.8% for FY2013. Over FY2012-14E, we expect USD and INR revenue CAGR of 11.4% and 12.2%, respectively. Over FY2012-14E, we expect a CAGR of 10.1% and 9.5% in EBIT and PAT, respectively. We value the company at 16x FY2014E of Rs 174.5 and recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,792," says Angel Broking research report.

Buy Ranbaxy around Rs 495-500

Sharma told CNBC-TV18, " Infosys unfortunately the downside have opened up and the unfortunate part is that the traders who were long could not come in and introduce their stop losses which were at higher levels closer to Rs 2,670 and because it opened with that kind of a gap down. So these people are already caught in the net and they might press more sales as the shares slipped below Rs 2,450 even though that is a good historical support for it.

He further added, " Yes Bank has stop loss at Rs 365 and I would bet for a price closer to Rs 400. Beside that we have seen a very good performance from Ranbaxy so any dip in the Ranbaxy share would be a good invitation to buy into it. Anywhere close to Rs 495 to Rs 500 it becomes a good buy with a target of close to Rs 530-535 in a week’s time."

"Metals are all on the weaker side because they are not on a very strong pitch. What we are seeing at the moment in the past one or two days is mere short covering rally happening in across the metal space. I would rather sell into this kind of an up move."

Stay invested in Hathway Cable

Thunuguntla told CNBC-TV18, "Hathway Cable is one of those news-driven kind of stocks. Whenever there is news about FDI, anything related to that, generally this stock tends to perform very big bounce. There were days on the intraday basis itself the stock has 15-18 kind of bounces. I think one can stay invested. So one should be patient, six months whenever you find these kind of bounces close to Rs 190-200 levels, one can book one’s profits."

The company touched its 52-week high Rs 193.80 and 52-week low Rs 72.00 on 13 Feb, 2012 and 06 Sep, 2011, respectively. Currently, it is trading -14.58% below its 52-week high and 129.93% above its 52-week low. Market capitalisation stands at Rs 2,365.00 crore.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Buy Escorts, says Sudarshan Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "Escorts had that big bear market while this market was going up. Now it seems that at least we are in for a relief rally and if it consolidates at lower levels, it could also start giving signs of a reversal. The reversal sense is too early but the relief rally is visible and these rallies just as they decline they can also go up very fast. So I would be a buyer in Escorts. In fact even for the day, if there is an opportunity, there is a minor dip or consolidation in Escorts, it is worthwhile going long in it."

He further added, " HDIL is something that we want to buy. This is a contradiction because real estate, I think is coming down but HDIL for the last seven days has been trading in a very narrow range. These narrow ranges inevitably lead to some kind of a breakout or a breakdown. The charts for HDIL suggest that a breakout is more likely than one on the downside. So whenever that opportunity comes, if it comes today, good otherwise in the next few days, HDIL should be a long candidate."

"I am not very impressed by power stocks. Simply because when we look at the chart, we take a call, okay, this is up or down. So Tata Power is up but I wouldn't go and buy it under any circumstances in spite of that rally. Power stocks are broadly in a very poor shape. So there is no need to go to a sector which is unlikely to outperform."

Sell BEML, says Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "In BEML chances are that Rs 450 area where it had bottomed out, could be revisited. It made something called a rounding top - slowly circled on the downside and then started falling with a lot of vigor. Nothing in it, the stock has seen very good days in 2007-2008 bull market, it is just a pale shadow of itself. So it hasn't come across something that is going through a correction. The upmove was a correction and the decline is just a renewal of its bear market. So it is probably a positional short not just an intraday you can sell it and wait patiently."

He further added, " Sterlite Ind is one of the weakest of the metal stocks. The chances are that it will crack Rs 100, go below, it is difficult to say how much below but this is not something you want to hold on to as a long position. Every occasion whether it is a breakdown, it consolidates and breaks down, that is a sell or it is simply a continuation of the downtrend and today I think the continuation process will be - yesterday's losses will be simply added to. So it is probably a short sell in the morning, wait for the first 10-15 minutes and look to go if the lows break."

Buy Lupin, says Sudarshan Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "Lupin is almost in a similar chart pattern as Divis Lab except that Lupin has not gone through a correction, it is making lifetime new highs. Similar because both of them are suggesting attractive buying opportunities, both of them are defensives. So for a stock that makes lifetime new highs, we want to go and buy it. Not necessarily in the morning itself but this doesn't stop, just like we have a talk of Apollo Tyres which is doing the same thing."

He further added, "You can have a one day pullback or a two days pullback but this upmove continues. So Lupin is something that we want to buy, simply because everyone is buying it and there is lot of strength in it."

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Buy Indraprastha Gas for long term: Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "There is no trade in Gujarat Gas . Its charts are very dismal. So it is best to avoid it. I think there is a very significant trade in Petronet and in IGL both. With sharp decline in IGL, it is a buying opportunity for an investor who is looking at a long-term horizon, it is a wonderful story, you are getting a good stock 40% cheaper."

He further added, "I know there is derating going on, there is news but I have often found that the market tends to overreact to the news. So I would say that wait patiently for a couple of days maybe next week once this volatility subsides, IGL becomes a buying opportunity. Why we want to wait is we don't know where it will subside, at current prices of Rs 190-200 we don't know that. So we want to wait."

"Petronet LNG could easily be a buying opportunity even prior to this volatility subsidization here because Petronet is in a completely different orbit, it is in a significant uptrend and this is a correction and that is all."

Buy HUL, says Sudarshan Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "The high beta names need to be sold off not because we want to buy defensives but because most of them are cracking on their own. So if you are a short-term trader and I am talking about the short-term trading area then you shouldn't be holding to these stocks. All of them are in significant and clear declines breaking down from support levels."

He further added, "The second is we would buy a stock like HUL only if we were willing to look at an upside. I wouldn't buy it just as a defensive. I can keep my money in the bank and wait patiently. So HUL in any case is a buying opportunity. My own sense is that it will go up, it is not going to go up in a hurry, it won't multiply like the high-beta segment but there is money to be made on the long side."

Buy Gammon Infrastructure, says Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "Yesterday Gammon Infrastructure rallied very significantly. So Gammon in any case was making higher highs on a long-term chart. So there is a sense that it's bottomed out and it's probably going to move up. The problem is that after this 10-12% rallies if a short-term trader enters today he may find that he entered right on the day when a small correction started. So Gammon Infra is a buy, it's a buy only for people who are willing to take positions for sometime."

He further added, " JSW Energy is very weak. All the Jindal stocks, probably all of them are looking weak and here it is energy. All the power stocks are in miserable position. JSW suggests that an initial target of Rs 54 is only an initial target. It's probably going to crack much lower, maybe Rs 40-42 that should be an eventual decline and a target on the downside. It's a very weak chart."

Sell IDFC, says Sudarshan Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "IDFC has been a very weak stock. It's one of the weakest infrastructure stocks or infrastructure finance stocks and it's certainly a sell. In fact I would assume that somebody wise enough could create a positional short in IDFC and keep on taking the other side with better infrastructure companies, maybe IRB , maybe something else and maintain IDFC as a long-term short. But anyway in the short-term also IDFC is a clear short. We are looking at a target of Rs 125 in a couple of days."

He further added, " GMR Infra is building a very clear invisible distribution and dropping down from it. So it would be traded on the short side. I don't expect a lot of downside here. This is really for short-term traders. For people who are looking at a couple of weeks or three weeks a target of Rs 25 or Rs 24 is possible. But I am not as bearish as such. It's probably a decline after that big rally."

Buy Mcleod Russel, says Sudarshan Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "You buy at new highs because topping out process takes a lot of time. That hasn't even begun. I don't think Bata India is going to top out in a hurry. At some point it will. So the three days sideways movement in Bata India is a substitute for a correction and the chances are that it's going to see much better levels probably maybe even today if the markets remain choppy and that's the time when we want to buy what is now a small dip."

He further added, "Mcleod Russel has come in my buy lists earlier also, after being fairly bearish on that this stock has turned around. From Rs 170 it has moved to Rs 270. Yesterday it showed signs that the highs that it is making are likely to be crossed. It closed cheerful and it's on the verge of a resistance breakout. So it's not exactly Bata but in its small way it's doing the right things, rallying, moving towards new highs for this uptrend. It's a buying opportunity. The chances are that this rally will continue."

Monday, April 9, 2012

Buy Kingfisher Airlines, Sintex: Diwan

Prakash Diwan, Asit C Mehta Investment advice traders to buy Kingfisher Airlines and Sintex at current levels.

Diwan told CNBC-TV18, "The high beta stocks would only be looked at from a pure trading perspective. They would help you create that additional alpha in the portfolio but you need to be very nimble. At times I have seen trades could be squared off on an intraday basis also and not even taken position overnight. So you have the likes of a Kingfisher where there any positive news could change things dramatically and another 10-15% of an upside is also possible."

He further added, "Buy into Kingfisher every time it goes down drastically, buy into Sintex because things are going to definitely look much better for this company in the coming quarter and the same thing goes for a lot of these media stocks that suddenly have started getting a buzz from today."

Buy SBI, ICICI Bank at current levels: Diwan

Prakash Diwan, Asit C Mehta Investment advice traders to buy SBI and ICICI Bank at current levels.

Diwan told CNBC-TV18, "If one were to understand the reason why banks have come down is because we keep on debating whether we are in for a decent repo rate cut or not this time. Even if that doesn't happen and even if there is a CRR cut, there is going to be a significant change in the liquidity in the market and that could just make things easier for banks in terms of getting that extra credit growth that they are always looking for."

He further added, "In terms of earnings expectations our sense is that the earnings would be fairly decent in terms of especially the credit growth side SBI possibly could clock about 17-18% growth on a year on year basis and even the NIMs may not be badly affected and most of the write off has already been taken care off in December particularly from the telecom space. So, my sense is banks would surprise positively with earnings and one could buy into an SBI or an ICICI Bank or an Axis Bank at these levels specially on days like these when markets react over react a bit and then buy into these and trade on them for that 5-7% upside."

Buy Hindalco around Rs 120: Diwan

Prakash Diwan, Asit C Mehta Investment advice traders to buy Hindalco around Rs 120.

Diwan told CNBC-TV18, "Very clear reaction to the softening of commodities last week that we had seen globally and ofcourse the firming up of the US dollar, but once that reaction is factored in, once we are at par with the changes that we have seen on the LME things should kind of stabilize at some level. Hindalco possibly at about Rs 120 levels again becomes a very good buy. So, you just need to wait for those levels to be touched and then things would start consolidating particularly for the non-ferrous side."

Buy Tata Steel on decline, says Sukhani

Sudarshan Sukhani, s2analytics.com advice traders to buy Tata Steel on decline.

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "Tata Steel is a better stock, far better stock, so any dips; any corrections should be used to buy. The only problem is that if the broad market is coming down Tata Steel independently is not going up; it's not that kind of a share. But its not a short sell, I would not advice that."

He further added, " Hindalco had a relief rally and that rally is now over. It has been one of the weakest metal stocks and the chances are that if the Nifty slides to 5100 or 5050 Hindalco will reach Rs 105. So if it can maintain its 3 digit values I would consider that to be a big achievement."

Buy Oriental Bank: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal is bullish on Oriental Bank of Commerce and has recommended buy rating on the stock in its April 3, 2012 research report.

We met the new CMD of Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC), Mr SL Bansal to gain insights into the bank's strategies and its roadmap under the new leadership. Our key takeaways:

De-bulking the balance sheet - A key requirement for improving operating parameters: In the last few years, strong loan growth and focus on bulk business led to a decline in OBC's CASA ratio and impacted margins. As a strategy, Mr Bansal intends to de-bulk the balance sheet. Accordingly, only select branches would focus on the wholesale business while the others would focus on the retail, SME and mid-corporate segments. In the process of realignment of its balance sheet, the bank is willing to grow moderately.

Improving CASA ratio - To leverage strong foothold in CASA-rich northern region: OBC's CASA ratio has been lower among state-owned banks at ~22% as against the industry average of ~30%. As at December 2011, the bank had ~1,750 branches, with very strong presence in the CASA-rich northern region. The management is planning various initiatives to improve CASA ratio and to leverage upon its strong foothold in the CASA-rich belt. Shedding of bulk deposits would also help to improve CASA ratio. The management targets CASA ratio of 25% by the end of CY12 as compared to 22% in December 2011.

NPA management and recoveries - A key focus area: Recoveries from NPAs and strengthening of credit appraisal at all levels to improve asset quality would be OBC's key focus areas. Moreover, with the help of technology, credit monitoring processes should advance considerably. The management is also considering providing preemptive restructuring of assets where the borrower has been temporarily impacted by economic slowdown.

Valuation and view - Maintain Buy: We expect near-term margins to be under pressure due to (1) tight liquidity conditions, (2) lower CASA ratio, and (3) higher proportion of deposits at preferential rates. However, we believe the new management's focus to improve the balance sheet, even at the cost of growth, is a step in the right direction. Though core operating parameters are under pressure, a strong management at the helm of affairs and low valuations are comforting. We expect OBC to report RoA of 0.7% and RoE of ~12% over FY12/13. The stock trades at 0.7x FY12E and 0.6x FY13E BV. Maintain Buy.

Buy Hitech Plast, says Ashish Chugh

Chugh told CNBC-TV18, "Hitech Plast is a small company promoted by the promoters of Asian Paints. The Dani family through their companies and in their personal capacity together hold about 67% stake in this company. This company manufactures plastic containers and bottles which are mainly used by paint, healthcare, FMCG, pharma and lubricant sectors. But the bulk of the revenues of the company come from the paint sector. The company has got 16 manufacturing facilities located in 12 cities and this company recently set up Rohtak, which is a big facility and also a facility in Uttarakhand."

He further added, "If one looks at the financials of the company, the FY12 sales were close to Rs 350 crore, with a Profit After Tax (PAT) of Rs 14.25 crore and EPS was Rs 11. In the first 9 months, sales have gone up by about 15% to Rs 292 crore, PAT has declined by about 20% to Rs 9.3 crore."

"If one looks at the financials of the company from a longer-term perspective, in the last five years, the sales of the company have grown by about more than 20% and same has been the case with Profit Before Tax (PBT) and PAT which have again grown by a CAGR of about 20%. In the first 9 months of this financial year even though sales have increased by about 15% PAT is down by 20%, this is mainly on account of the fact that debt has gone up and the interest cost of the company is 50% higher than the same period last year."

"Now this debt has gone up mainly because of the new capex which the company did in the past two years and the full benefits have really not started coming in as yet. This maybe because of a lag effect and in times to come the performance of the company and the sales of the company may catch up with higher interest outgo. At the current price of Rs 55, the stock is available at almost its two years low. The two years low is close to Rs 53-54."

"So at Rs 55, the stock has come down to its two year low mainly because of short-term concerns which are there. There are concerns on account of higher interest costs and also concerns on account of crude prices being up because of which the raw material of the company gets expensive. I believe these negatives maybe fully factored in at the current market price. You have a steady business bagged by good management, which is available at reasonable valuations. So I think at the current price of about Rs 54-55 this stock warrants a buy."

Sell BHEL on rally: Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "BHEL has just hit a resistance and we saw a big move last week on the last trading day. But I think that is it and that is done away with. There was some news and it is touching a level it will find difficult to cross. So for me this is a sell into strength stock, sell on rallies. BHEL charts are not at all attractive now. It needs to do a lot of work before we can say the trend is up. The trend here is down."

The company's trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS was at Rs 125.82 per share. (Dec, 2011). The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 2.12. The latest book value of the company is Rs 82.34 per share. At current value, the price-to-book value of the company was 3.23. The dividend yield of the company was 2.34%.

Buy Apollo Tyres, says Sukhani

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, " Jaiprakash Associates is now on the verge of a breakout that will take it to new highs for this leg of the bull market or this uptrend. So this is a stock we want to buy. I just want to explain that there is no need to buy it today although we are discussing it because sometimes these breakouts and then lead to significant consolidations, which doesn't change the trend, the trend is still up but for JP it's probably wise to wait for a breakout, wait for a consolidation. So, that the weak hands are all thrown away and then to go for a big upside move. There is a very big move eminent on the upside in JP, you just have to time it properly."

He further added, "Apollo Tyres is a buy. The trader doesn't have to buy it today but he must understand that Apollo Tyre is now willing to make lifetime new highs. A stock that is doing that is always a buying opportunity. So for position traders, a couple of rupee up or down doesn't make a difference, he/she could buy it today assuming that he will get it slightly cheaper than just hold on to it. Traders must time it because it has seen a very decent rally but this is only the beginning of what I think is a very big upmove in Apollo Tyres, so always remains on the long side."