Friday, April 20, 2012

Buy Dish TV at current level


Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "Dish TV is a stock that should be bought on dips. Today probably would have been a buying day except that there is so much absurdity today that may be Monday would be a better day but I would go and buy Dish TV."

He further added, "Sugar is now going through some kind of a correction. I am assuming that this correction will end soon but when an entire sector goes through a decline there is no buying opportunity.”

" Balrampur Chini has already given signs of distribution breaking down, Shree Renuka never really caught up with Balrampur so a very weak advance has now been arrested and its going back to test its support levels. So both of them are not buying opportunities. Because they are corrections I don’t think we should go and short them."

Buy Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki


Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, “Maruti Suzuki is worth a buy and assuming that the markets remain choppy the impact of the markets on the stock would be minimal. So Maruti is a stock that you can take home today or certainly look into next week.”

He further added, “ Idea Cellular has not bottomed out, but Bharti has. Bharti Airtel has very strong support at the lower levels, Rs 315-320 and it comes there and when it comes there that’s the time when we want to go long in it. So Bharti also has some attractive chart patterns suggesting that at least a rally of some kind is possible. So Bharti is a buying opportunity, but not idea.”

“PFC and REC, both stocks continue to remain buying opportunities, but I think the correction that started today will work out in the next couple of days. So I don’t know if they are good buys on Monday. But once they go through two or three days of consolidation and dips they certainly should be bought into.”

Buy Maruti Suzuki at current level


Sudip Bandyopadhyay, MD & CEO, Destimoney Securities advice traders to buy Maruti Suzuki at current levels.

Bandyopadhyay told CNBC-TV18, “Fundamentally Maruti Suzuki looks a good buy. They were not present in a particular segment which was 15% of the market, which is the SUV. Now they have an excellent car launched in the segment, very aggressively priced.”

He further added, “Apart from the fact that last year they had a significant production outage because of which the numbers were significantly down. This year if they don’t have a production problem they will get the normal growth. Apart from that this SUV segment through the new car, aggressively priced they definitely are going to get market share which is more than proportionate. So we are looking at Maruti as a fundamental buy at these levels.”

" JSW Steel , one has to be extremely cautious considering the entire environmental issues and the way the regulatory position is evolving over the company and the related businesses, I will be extremely cautious."

Buy Shree Renuka Sugars around Rs 30


Tulsian told CNBC-TV18, “I have been keeping myself away from all the UP-based sugar mills and whatever mills �" the share price movements, which we have been seeing mainly of Balrampur Chini , Bajaj Hindusthan they are all UP-based sugar mills and it is obvious that none of them is going to perform on the expected line for their March quarter because now we are approaching the March quarter result season.”

He further added, “Except for Renuka, I don’t think that you have substance or you have any investment potential in going for any of the sugar stocks. So probably maybe at the lower level at about Rs 30, Shree Renuka can be considered for buying and not any other stocks.”

Buy Hyderabad Industries; tgt of Rs 382


"Hyderabad Industries Limited (HIL) is a flagship Company of the C.K. Birla Group of Companies. Incorporated on 17th June 1946, we are one of the oldest fibre cement roof manufacturing companies in India. The Company has developed brands that have stood the test of time and created a legacy of market leadership. The Company sheeting brand "Charminar" built over a period of 60 years based on affordability, quality, strength and durability, continues to enjoy the confidence of customers. The Company extensive sales and distribution network spread across the country, with a representation in all the states, is a result of their continued efforts to extend the network and ensure availability of products even in remote rural areas."

"Currently a major trend that is sweeping the building products industry is the "Green" factor. They anticipated this Green revolution a decade ago, and their mature product lines of Aerocon and Hysil stand testimony to that fact. There is a growing segment of building products consumers who are environmentally conscious. HIL is run by a team of dedicated professionals and has grown into an organisation occupying an eminent position in the building material industry of India. HIL is backed by the organizational and technical expertise of the Birlas and has a Board of directors comprising experienced personnel from Business, Finance and Industry."

"Hyderabad Industries Ltd disclosed results for the quarter ended Dec 2011. Net sales for the quarter moved up 15% to Rs.1943.10 million as compared to Rs.1693.30 million during the corresponding quarter last year. During the quarter, the company has reported Net Profit increased to Rs.101.60 million from Rs.63.70 million in previous year same quarter. The Basic EPS of the company stood at Rs.13.56 for the quarter ended Dec 2011."

"At the current market price of Rs.335.00, the stock is trading at 4.42 x FY12E and 4.02 x FY13E respectively. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 0.72 x and 0.61 x respectively for FY12E and FY13E. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY12E and FY13E is seen at Rs.75.88 and Rs.83.42 respectively. Net Sales of the company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% over 2010 to 2013E respectively. During the quarter, the company has reported Net Profit increased to Rs.101.60 million from Rs.63.70 million in previous year same quarter. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 2.34 x for FY12E and 2.14 x for FY13E. We expect that the company will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend 'BUY' in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 382 for medium to long term investment," says Firstcall Research report.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Accumulate HDFC Bank; target of Rs 590


“In Q4 FY12, HDFC Bank’s (HDBK) NII grew 19.3% YoY to Rs 33.9bn- 6.7% higher than our estimates of Rs 31.6bn. The bank reported bottom-line of Rs 14.5bn compared to our estimates of Rs 14.6bn. A 70-bps QoQ rise in CASA share to 48.4% and higher yield on advances led to 10bps improvement in margin on sequential basis. Improvement in margin on sequential basis at 4.2% was mainly due to higher yield on advances (YoAA); better YoAA was due to higher composition of retail loan book. Also, running-off of 5%-6%of low-yielding whole-sale credit book aided margin.”

“In Q4FY12, HDBK enjoyed higher CASA deposits due to floats in form of issuance of tax-free bonds and redemption of some of the CDs. On non-interest income front, much higher foreign exchange income was due to higher volume from clients and due to volatility in FX rates. Consistent core fee income growth and traction in forex gains lifted operating profit growth. The bank’s asset quality remains strong and the management does not expect any negative surprise going forward. Due to contained NPLs, decline in baddebt provisions was seen on YoY basis. HDFC Bank added 343 branches and 1803 ATMs in Q4 and reflected higher operating overheads.”

“We introduce FY14 earnings estimates and rollover our price target on FY14 at Rs 590. At current price, the stock quotes at 3.1x adjusted book value FY14, and based on the target price, the stock will trade at 3.4x ABV FY14. We rate the stock as an Accumulate with a price target of Rs 590,” says Dolat Capital research report.

Hold HCL Tech; target of Rs 515


“HCL Technologies’ revenue and margins in 3QFY12 were in line with expectations, while net profit was nearly 5% more than consensus estimates aided by higher other income and lower forex losses. Deal wins of US$1.5bn ensure decent revenue visibility for FY13, a key concern for the street and rightly so after the subdued outlook from Infosys. HCL Tech’s earnings report is a vote in favour of the “company-specific issues (read Infosys-specific)” camp. However, its stock price has risen 28% since we upgraded it to Buy in January and valuation at 12.5x FY13E EPS does not leave much room for upside. We maintain our Hold rating on the stock with a revised TP of Rs515 (Rs504), as we raise our target PE multiple to 13x (12.5x).”

“HCL Technologies reported a 2.5% QoQ growth in dollar revenues to US$1,048mn (our estimate US$1,052mn), while rupee revenues fell slightly by 0.6% QoQ (Rs52.2bn versus our and consensus estimates of Rs52.9bn). Software services volume growth was slightly ahead of expectation at 3% QoQ (our estimate 2.7%); blended pricing declined 1.5% QoQ (more than our estimate of 0.8% QoQ decline). Software services revenue grew 1.5% QoQ to US$747mn (our estimate US$750mn). BPO revenues surged 6.5% QoQ to US$49mn, the fastest growth rate since 2QFY09, while infrastructure management services (IMS) grew 5.1% QoQ to US$251mn, a strong bounce-back after a sequential revenue decline in 2QFY12. HCL Tech reported an 11bps QoQ fall in EBITDA margin to 18.4%, in line with our estimate (40bps ahead of consensus). The BPO segment turned EBITDA-positive for the first time since 2QFY10 and, we believe, this could be a margin lever for FY13. Higher other income and lower forex losses aided a 5.2% QoQ rise in net profit to Rs6.03bn, ahead of our estimate by 2.1% and ahead of consensus estimates by 4.6%.”

“HCL Tech’s earnings report is a vote in favour of the “company-specific issues (read Infosys-specific)” camp. However, after a 28% rise in the stock over the past three months, valuation at 12.5x FY13E EPS is on the higher side. We retain our Hold rating on the stock with a revised TP of Rs515 (Rs504), as we raise our target PE multiple to 13x (12.5x),” says Nirmal Bang research report

Ashok Leyland has target of Rs 32.50 - Rs 33


Thukral told CNBC-TV18, "Yesterday you saw M&M, Bajaj Auto seeing some volume built up but Ashok Leyland saw a maximum open interest and a volume built up. Importantly, the stock has corrected from Rs 33 and taken support from Rs 29.50-30 levels."

He further added, "Till it holds above that Rs 29 - 28.50 mark, it is still in that bullish orbit. So anybody who is taking a trading position should keep a stoploss of Rs 28.50-28 levels. The target that I am seeing immediately on Ashok Leyland is around Rs 32.50-33. So that means 8-10% trading move can be seen in the next 3-4 trading sessions."

Kalyani Steel has target of Rs 75


Tulsian told CNBC-TV18, "Kalyani Steel is a Kalyani Group company having promoter stake of 60%. They are into making of the forging and engineering grade alloy and carbon steel. If you see again tomorrow we have the hearing at the Supreme Court, probably the judgement will get delivered by the Supreme Court in the Karnataka mining ban case in which it is expected that the A category mines, which are about 45 mines are allowed to restart and this company falls in that category. If that order comes in probably as indicated by the management they have hinted that in next two to three months they will be able to restart the mining operations."

He further added, "They are holding mines of the very high iron contents with FE content of 65% with a reserve of about 27 million tonne and looking to their annual requirement of one million tonne of iron ore that is enough for them to run their plant for next 27 years."

"They have very sophisticated plants in two states Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh and I think largely based on that news I think that this stock looks quite good because for first nine months their performance has not been that great. They had a PAT of about Rs 8 crore, while for whole of FY11 they had a PAT of Rs 56 crore. So in my view once the mining operations if allowed to them FY13 can have a PAT of close to about Rs 50-55 crore and going forward maybe for FY14 it can shoot up to as high as Rs 75 crore with a very low equity base and with a very good working and that translates into an earning per share of close to about Rs 13-14 for FY13 and about Rs 16 for FY14."

"So largely on this news I am expecting the share to start doing quite well and one can take a conservative target of about Rs 75 in six months, but if it is held for a year or so it can breach the three digit mark as well."

Ambuja Cements can go to Rs 175-180


Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "In Ambuja Cements technical suggest that we are seeing a rally that can go to Rs 175-180. Now a lot will depend on what the results are and how you people analyze it. So that’s not my task. Assuming that everything goes well I expect Ambuja to eventually touch Rs 195. There is no way I can say it will do that on Monday or today or not at all. But that’s the expectation."

He further added, "If the investor needs money then he/she should get out of BHEL because it is not going to do anything spectacular in the next few months. But if investor is willing to hold on till July he/she will get better prices than Rs 260 which is where BHEL is now."

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Buy Infosys; target of Rs 2945


“Infosys reported a ~27% YoY growth in net profit for the fourth quarter, but forecast much lower-than-expected US dollar revenue growth for FY’13E, warning FY’13E’s challenging time to slower growth in the global economy. It reported a PAT of Rs23,160 mn for the January-March quarter, up ~27% YoY, but down ~3% sequentially. Revenue for the 3M period was up ~22% from a year ago at Rs88,852 mn. Revenue QoQ was down ~5% in Q4FY’12. FY’12 revenue stood at Rs3,31,248 mn which is typically a muted quarter for IT exporters like Infosys. Annual PAT stood at Rs84,960 mn.”

“Infosys Ltd, India’s second largest software exporter posted a ~22% YoY rise in its revenue (Rs88,520 mn) for Q4FY’12 and ~27% YoY rise in its profit (Rs23,160 mn) rise in quarterly profit, but forecasted lower-than-expected revenue growth for the current fiscal year FY’13E, due to an uncertain global economy and currency volatility. The company has also suffered delay contract launches and seen volume decline by ~0.9%+, utilization rate down by ~69%. However, there was silver lining in the area of contract pricing, which saw a YoY growth of ~4.7%+. The company signed 5 large deals but no such transformational deals in the Q4FY’12. The company commented that it has been a huge volatile quarter; March saw one of the biggest slip-down due to delays in contract launches and ramp downs in a few BFSI clients. Visibility for the entire year now is only 65%+ in clients’ contracts. Due to global issues, there is a lack of client confidence. Given the present global stance, we expect some contraction in client’s budgets which is not clarified.”

“Infosys saw an enhancement of margins on both operating and net margin aided by its BPO business. Operating margin rose by 100bps to ~30% at Rs26,470 mn aided by other income of Rs6,520 mn and USD/Rs50.88, while net margin also expanded by 100 bps to ~26% at Rs23,160 mn. At CMP of Rs2,402, the stock trades at a P/E & P/BVPS of ~13.5x and ~3.7x respectively, using FY’13E EPS & BVPS. Hence, we upgrade rating to BUY from earlier HOLD, re-affirming on our ETP of Rs2,945 (upside potential of ~22% from current levels), factored over a P/E & P/BVPS of ~16.7x and ~4.6x, using FY’13E EPS of Rs176 and BVPS of Rs641,” says R K Global research report.

Buy MindTree on dips; target of Rs 600


“Mindtree reported another quarter of strong volume growth and margin improvement. Revenue grew by 1.30% sequentially to $105.04mn (against our expectation of $105.54mn) driven by whopping 5.10% of volume growth. Operating margin also improved by 248bps sequentially to 18.74% mainly because of increased operational efficiency. Net profit more than doubled YoY basis to Rs68.90cr against Rs32.00cr in the corresponding period of the previous financial year.”

“MindTree’s focused approach towards IT services brought fruit for the company over the last one year. For the full year of FY12, IT services registered 37.12% growth against flat performance of the Product Engineering business. Moreover, the company’s focus towards the mining of the existing clients through restructured sales force and approach yielded results, as per client revenue increased drastically and the company added one more client of more than $20mn during the quarter. Over the last one year, MindTree Management is bringing in operational efficiency and reducing cost by restructuring the employee pyramid. In the previous quarter, the company able to reduce employee cost sequentially by replacing high cost attritions with low cost fresher intake. Per capita wages also reduced to Rs6.77lakh from Rs7.00lakh in the corresponding period. The company offered 3000 fresher to join in FY13 and want to concentrate more on just in time laterals hiring which we feel would reduce the cost by bottom heavy employee composition. We believe, IT services focused growth strategy and hiring fresher would coincide well for the company and this would eventually percolate to bottom line improvement.”

“We reduce our FY13 topline growth estimates from 17% to 14% to make room for huge uncertainty into the system. We believe, decision delays and cautious client spending, especially in the BFSI space, would affect the performance in the first two quarters and growth is expected revive in the second half of the financial year. But, we maintain our EY13 EPS estimate at Rs60.34 as operational efficiency and favorable currency would benefit margins.”

“MindTree is best placed among the Tier II Indian IT services offshoring companies to sustain and get higher growth due to their diversified vertical and service offerings, renewed focus of the management to get growth in annuity based business streams and revamped vertical focused sales initiatives. Margin levers are also very high as the company is at the end of transforming its business and fruits have already started coming in terms of better revenue growth. But, the recent rally in the stock prices left little room for short term upside and we believe valuation matrix re-rating would take some more time. We are recommending ‘BUY ON DIPS’ with target price of Rs600 after discounting FY13 EPS by 10x,” says Way2Wealth research report.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Buy Ballarpur Industries

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "In Ballarpur Industries there was a rally, it went all the way to Rs 40 then it slide and was almost forgotten. But it has a very attractive chart, it is trading in top of its range, in the sense that the range is wide from Rs 17-24 and is moving around Rs 24 band for quite some weeks now, not just days. It is on the small correction which tells us that perhaps this is a buy on dips opportunity."

He further added, "Now we are anticipating that sooner or later that Rs 24-25 band will be broken on the upside simply because it is on the upper end. It is a good buy because if this rally is going to begin then the small correction has probably come to an end yesterday or today, it made some very narrow range bars. Now there is no F&O, so you just go and buy the equity and that also carries less risk because there is no leverage. So it makes a lot of sense to go and buy it, wait patiently. It could reward in two days or in 20 days."

Monday, April 16, 2012

Bank of Baroda can test Rs 816


Murlidharan told CNBC-TV18, "Apart from SBI , Kotak Mahindra Bank , I have been looking into Bank of Baroda. I feel that’s the best script and that can actually outperform these because SBI we are seeing it fluctuate last couple of days. In Kotak Mahindra Bank there is cash based buying which is happening.”

He further added, “I really feel the momentum still might come in and may be possible after the event but specifically if it’s an event I feel Bank of Baroda is one script I guess Rs 792 is what it is trading at, the stop loss can be Rs 784 and we are expecting close to Rs 816 on that."

The company's trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS was at Rs 107.98 per share. (Dec, 2011). The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 7.33. The latest book value of the company is Rs 509.54 per share. At current value, the price-to-book value of the company was 1.55. The dividend yield of the company was 2.08%.

Buy RIL around Rs 700


Merani told CNBC-TV18, "If you look at Reliance Industries (RIL) around a year back or so it was in a range of Rs 900 to Rs 1,100. This has shifted to Rs 900 to Rs 700 so roughly the floor would be around Rs 680 levels on the downside and upside anywhere between Rs 850-900. So I would suggest buying around Rs 700 levels and whenever it starts rising above Rs 850-900 one should start reducing the position into the stock."

He further added, " ICICI Bank tends to give more beta part and it has been holding on to that Rs 840-850 levels for the last three weeks. So I have a defined stop loss at Rs 840 levels and buying at Rs 855-860 gives me a good risk reward in case of a positive announcement."

Buy JSW Steel on dips

Agarwal told CNBC-TV18, "One should continue holding JSW Steel. Our price target for this stock in the next six-nine months is around Rs 900. If you look at the valuations, it is trading at a P/E of around 10 times its earnings, which we think is quite reasonable considering the kind of mines, the kind of projects this company has. Although the overhang of the mining ban and all is going to continue for some more time in the near future and any positive or negative newsflow from that front is going to give the direction for the stock price but that is for the short-term."

He further added, "We believe that any fall to the range of around Rs 680-700 would be a good price to accumulate and with a price target of Rs 900 in next six-nine months. So I would suggest a buy on dips kind of strategy on the stock."

Sell Tata Steel Future; target of Rs 427


“Tata steel has been trend downwards with formation of lower tops and lower bottom with Rs455 acting as major resistance. On Friday`s trading session Tata steel formed a ‘shooting star’ pattern which is a short term trend reversal and thus engulfing previous doji pattern. A move below Rs448 would negate the bullish implication of the same confirmed with MACD indicating a downward crossover. Adding to it, the 200 DMA has been convincingly broken which supports selling argument in the counter. We recommend going short on Tata Steel April Futures below Rs 447 with stop loss of Rs 457 for target of Rs 427,” says IIFL research report.

Sell Indraprastha Gas; target of Rs 206


“A precipitous fall of 33% in the Indraprastha Gas (IGL) stock after the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s (PNGRB) downward revision in tariff is regarded as exaggerated reaction by some sections of the market, citing several loopholes in the regulator’s order. We expect the overhang on IGL to continue until the final verdict from the Appellate Tribunal as well as the Delhi High Court. We retain our Sell rating on IGL with a downward revision in the target price by 43% to Rs206 from Rs363. Key upside risk to our TP would be leeway available to IGL for hiking the marketing margin and/or favourable ruling from the court.”

“The PNGRB’s order mandates network and compression tariff of Rs 3.5/scm compared to IGL’s submission of Rs 8.8/scm. There is growing consensus among investors that the difference of Rs5.3/scm may be treated as marketing margin, which would nullify the case against IGL having to refund the amount cumulating over the past four years. We believe IGL’s submission formed the basis of PNGRB’s tariff calculation and to deem excess amount charged as marketing margin post PNGRB’s verdict would dilute IGL’s case before the Appellate Tribunal. We believe IGL will toe the line on reduced network and compression tariff effective from PNGRB’s order date (the implementation will depend upon how soon the Appellate Tribunal gives its verdict).”

“IGL sold ~3.7bn scm of gas in the past four years, implying the company has to shell out Rs11-18bn (assuming Rs3-5/scm) as refund to its customers. While PNG consumers would be able to produce invoices for every purchase made, which can be offset against future consumption, the major task would be in passing on the refund benefits to CNG consumers. IGL’s management maintains that the refund from retrospective effect is unconstitutional. It said IGL will treat the refund amount as a contingent liability until the final verdict. A refund involves reversal of excise duty, income tax and value added tax, making the entire exercise very complex We have cut the gross spread margin for FY13E/14E to Rs5.5/scm compared to Rs8.0/scm earlier. We currently assume a marketing margin of Rs2/scm over and above PNGRB’s tariff of Rs3.5/scm. Lower gross spread would lead the company to post EBITDA/scm in the range of Rs3.0-3.1/scm from Rs5.0/scm currently. We trim our EPS estimates for FY13E/FY14E by 56%/53%, respectively, to Rs10.0/11.6 from Rs22.59/24.97,” says Nirmal Bang research report.