Friday, January 16, 2015

Short Hero Motocorp, says Amit Harchekar


Amit Harchekar of A Plus Analytics told CNBC-TV18, " Hero Motocorp  is continuously forming lower-top and lower-bottom formation. Even despite yesterday’s smart pullback in the market, the stock was unable to close with the gains of more than 2 percent and that is the major sign of concern. It has already breached the long-term support line below Rs 3,150 and now the stock is projecting a target close to Rs 2,700 in the near term.

Any pullback towards Rs 3,000 becomes a good selling opportunity, in fact if anyone is initiating short positions at current level one can go short with the stoploss of Rs 3,050 and target can be seen at around Rs 2,750, he added.

Go long in Bharat Electronics, says Amit Harchekar


Amit Harchekar of A Plus Analytics told CNBC-TV18, "On monthly chart Bharat Electronics   has given another breakout above Rs 3,250 andthat transforms into a price target somewhere around Rs 3,650-3,700 on 15-20 days perspective. In the short-term, good buying is seen in the zone of Rs 3,250-3,300. So this becomes good accumulation zone.

From a technically perspective one can go long in this stock at current level with a stoploss of Rs 3,200 and we are expecting this stock to test level of Rs 3,450-3,600 in the next coming days, he added.

Buy Aditya Birla Nuvo, says Kunal Bothra


Kunal Bothra, head of advisory at LKP told CNBC-TV18, "I have avoided the banking stocks particularly because of the kind of short-term resistance we are facing but from the midcap space, Aditya Birla Nuvo   seems to be a good stock. 

It is trading above its short-term moving averages . Looking at the fresh swing high being made this could be a good opportunity to buy Aditya Birla Nuvo.One could probably look at a target of Rs 60-70 further from the current price. So it could probably take it very close to Rs 1,825-1,850 and a stoploss placed at Rs 1,730," he said.

Hold Axis Bank, says Gaurang Shah


Gaurang Shah, VP at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services told CNBC-TV18, "We do have a positive coverage on  Axis Bank  and we have to factor in today’s number that the bank came out with and according to us, the estimates that we had lined up, the numbers were a tad better than what our expectation was. 

Our initial targets stand at about Rs 580, post these numbers there is credible data to say that we could possibly revise it upwards to about Rs 630." "If you are a long-term investor with the rate cuts heading top-down and incremental improvement on the economic front, I think the corporate loan book and retail loan book is likely to grow at a much more faster pace and given the kind of performance in the numbers, I think the coming quarters could only improve the visibility and the growth. So I would say hold on to it. 

As of now we are working with a target of Rs 580 but like I said, factoring today’s number, we would revise it upward but Rs 630 could be the possible target in year’s time," he added.

Stay invested in SBI: Gaurang Shah


Gaurang Shah, VP at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services told CNBC-TV18, " State Bank of India  (SBI) is one of the banks that is under our positive coverage in the banking universe from the public sector undertaking (PSU) banking lot. 

With top-down scenario for interest rate cut, the only issue has been with PSU bank is the asset quality and the restructuring/provisioning issues but given the fact that it is the largest public sector banks and with the recent initiatives by the government this bank also would tend to get benefited." "My advise to the investors would be to hold on to it, wait out for the numbers that will be seeing in maybe about a week or fortnight from State Bank of India (SBI). 

From the near-term we are working with a target of about Rs 345 and if numbers are something soothing and asset quality does not disappoint and of course the NIMs improve, definitely we would revise it upwards, so hold as of now," he added.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Buy M&M Financial; target of Rs 395: ICICIdirect


With the upcoming budget and result season, stock specific moves are likely to be seen in the market. M&M Finance, being into commercial vehicle lending, is one of the cheapest stocks available among its peers. Hence, it is likely to witness money flows in the days to come as sentiments improve further. Moreover, M&M Financial has almost recovered towards its November highs while broader index is still almost 200 points lower than those levels. 

It indicates ongoing buying momentum in the stock and it provides a good opportunity to ride further up move towards 400 levels. After making highs near Rs 340, M&M Financial witnessed significant addition of short positions. 

As a result, the stock declined sharply towards Rs 270 in the later part of December series. Since then as the stock recovered, closure of short positions is still continued and it has shed close to 30% open interest since the month of December. We expect the current short covering trend may scale up to Rs 400 levels in the near term.

Short Hindalco Industries; target of Rs 140: Emkay


The stock traded close to its strong resistance levels of 161 last Friday on back of lower delivery volumes. Delivery volume stood at 0.94 million shares (lowest in the current series) as against series average of 2.03 million shares. Lower than average delivery volumes at resistance levels indicate lower probability of any sustained breakout. % delivery volume on last Friday stood at 29.13%, lowest in the current series. 

Despite the up move from a low of 150 levels to a high of 160 levels in the current series, no significant accumulation of open interest has been observed. On the contrary, closure of positions was observed as open interest declined to 26 million shares from a high of 26.94 million shares. Cost of carry too has been on a declining trend. 

Dollar index has been gaining strength. Historical studies indicate the index has a maximum inverse correlation with the metal stocks. With further strength expected to continue to prevail in the dollar index, we believe the stock could see renewed selling pressure. 

Strategy "Accumulate short positions in Hindalco in the range of Rs 160-161 levels for an immediate target of Rs 140 levels. We recommend holding positions with a stop loss placed at Rs 170 levels on a closing basis.

Buy Divis Labs; target of Rs 2050: ICICIdirect


"Divis Lab has remained near Rs 1700 levels since the last couple of months. The traders who tried to go short in the stock are slowly exiting from their positions as the stock is reverting after remaining sideways for sometime. The stock also absorbed the recent losses in Nifty when the index fell from 8630 to 7970. 

During this period Divis Lab fell only from Rs 1680 to Rs 1640. It shows inherent strength in the stock and it is likely to move up as the index has finally shown signs of revival." "The current OI in the stock is one of the lowest seen in the last 3 months. Since the October expiry, the stock has remained subdued after hitting Rs 1875 levels. Initially there was long liquidation as open interest witnessed closure of over 7%. 

Post this closure, there was short addition of over 35% in a span of 2 trading sessions in the price range of Rs 1800-1840. Later the stock fell till Rs 1650-1700 and stuck up in this range since the month of November.

Buy Divis Lab in the range of Rs 1710-1735, target price: Rs 2050, stop loss: Rs 1556", says ICICIdirect.com research report.

Buy Everest Industries; target of Rs 378: ICICIdirect



"The share price of Everest industries looks ripe for next up move after five weeks of consolidation above its 2010 and 2013 peaks (Rs 267) and therefore offers fresh entry opportunity. Technically the robust price structure is clearly exhibited as stock price consolidated in a narrow range wherein it retraced its preceding up leg (242-321) only by 50% while consuming equal time taken for rally (5 weeks). 

Such price/time behaviour signals constant appetite to own the stock at higher levels." "Earlier share price broke past its multi year highs during November 2014 pointing towards major shift in long term price structure thereby lifting the stock price in higher orbit. We expect stock price to head towards 380 being the 123.6% extension of preceding up leg (242-321) as projected from December 2014 lows of Rs 280." "On the volume front it has been double its 50 week average ~ 1.5 lakh shares during rallies which boost longevity of up trend. The rising MACD which is firmly placed in positive territory supports overall bullish momentum in the stock.

Buy Everest Industries in the range of Rs 317.00-323.00 for a target of Rs 378.00 with a stop loss below Rs 295.00 on a closing basis", says ICICIdirect.com research report.

Buy Gujarat Pipavav; target of Rs 221: ICICIdirect



"Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPL) has entered into an arrangement with NYK Auto Logistics (India) Pvt Ltd (NYK) where NYK has sub-leased land for developing a dedicated common user integrated roll-in roll-out (RO-RO) yard at Pipavav Port. The RO-RO yard has annual designed capacity to handle 250,000 vehicles and is expected to be operational in the first quarter of CY15. This is another effort on part of GPPL to diversify its cargo base, thereby insulating itself from a downturn in any particular segment. Earlier this year, GPPL commenced its new business line of handling liquid cargo (handled nearly 96,695 MT in Q3CY14). 

This is further expected to ramp up as new capacity gets added and the existing stabilises. The container volume for GPPL has shown strong growth of ~25% YoY due to addition of new services over the years and upgradation of existing clients; also, going ahead we anticipate container volume to post CAGR of ~17% over CY13-16E. However, any new line of business is expected to smoothen out the volatility of revenue growth." "With the addition of a couple of new business lines and improved revenue visibility, GPPL is expected to post a revenue CAGR of nearly 20% over CY11-15 whereas EBITDA CAGR is anticipated at ~27% over the same period. As nearly 70% of GPPL’s cost is fixed, the new business is expected to further improve the operating leverage, thereby aiding the EBITDA margin. 

Further, GPPL’s debt free structure and ECB funding for new capex is expected to bring down the interest cost. A diversified cargo portfolio and presence in high growth segments like tank farms and auto export provide confidence on the earnings growth of GPPL.

 Consequently, we revise our estimates upwards and have a BUY recommendation on the stock with a DCF based target price of Rs 221", says ICICIdirect.com research report.

Accumulate Yes Bank; target Rs 855: KRChoksey


"Yes Bank reported a strong performance during the quarter with a PAT of Rs 540 crs (up 30.0% Y-o-Y & 12.0% Q-o-Q). 1) Net interest income grew strongly 36.6% Y-o-Y & 6.1% Q-o-Q on the back of a strong loan book growth of 32.4% Y-o-Y and stable NIMs sequentially 2) 

Following suite, non-interest has showed strong growth momentum up 38.4% Y-o-Y and 6.2% Q-o-Q on the back of third party distribution (+64.9% y/y), income from financial markets (+41.3% y/y) and financial advisory fees (42.8% y/y) 3) Operating expenses increased 32.9% Y-o-Y on the back of branch expansion 4) Provisions stood at Rs 70 crs in Q3FY15, a decline of 41.5% Q-o-Q 5) Asset quality has deteriorated during the quarter with 25.3% sequential increase in gross NPAs. 

Gross NPAs and Net NPAs stood at 0.4% & 0.1% respectively with PCR of 76.8% (up 108bps Q/Q) 6) Loan book grew 32.4% Y-o-Y & 7.4% Q-o-Q driven by a strong retail loan book (up 17.5% Q/Q) as wholesale lending softened 7) Deposits growth came at 21.0% Y-o-Y & 2.8% Q-o-Q, CASA ratio showed uptick 13bps Q-o-Q led by a healthy trajectory in saving deposits (up 42.8% Y-o-Y)." "The Bank has been delivering steady operating performance in the last few quarters. 

The bank’s valuation has re-rated on the back of falling wholesale rates, sturdy margins and built-up of a strong non-interest income profile. We believe further re-rating in the stock will be contingent on strong execution of retail strategy and NIM led expansion in ROA. We expect Yes Bank to deliver 24.6% CAGR in net profits over FY14-FY17. At Rs 787, the stock is trading at 2.4x FY16 adjusted book and 12.7x FY16 earnings, leaving limited upside from the current level. 

We maintain “ACCUMULATE” rating on the stock with target price of Rs 855, potential upside 8.6%", says KRChoksey research report.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Buy Corporation Bank; target Rs 365: Pritesh Mehta


Pritesh Mehta, Senior Technical Analyst at IIFL told CNBC-TV18, " Corporation Bank  has not participated for the last couple of months now. On the daily chart the stock has given a breakout from inverted head and shoulder pattern also this breakout has taken place after two months of consolidation and on the weekly chart the stock has given a breakout from a downwards slope trend line. There are back to back breakouts on the short-term and the medium-term charts.

 So buy Corporation bank for the target of Rs 365.' At 15:04 hrs Corporation Bank was quoting at Rs 339.05, up Rs 13.05, or 4.00 percent on the BSE. The share touched its 52-week high Rs 417.50 and 52-week low Rs 220.10 on 09 June, 2014 and 24 February, 2014, respectively.

Buy Sun Pharmaceutical Industries: Pritesh Mehta



Pritesh Mehta, Senior Technical Analyst at IIFL told CNBC-TV18, "It is not an opportunity to buy  Sun Pharmaceutical Industries  for short-term trading, but someone is willing to put money for at least couple of weeks, it could turnout be an ideal trade because we are talking about a stock which is available at reasonable price. In fact this stock is one of my favourite and it has gone through a bit of correction. This counter is up trending in nature, so every correction, every decline has to be brought into.

After the phase of correction the stock was into a period of consolidation for the month of December. Now on the daily chart, the stock is on the verge of breaking out from a rounding bottom pattern. So it tells us that the correction phase is over. So buy this stock," he said. 

Disclosure: Analyst might have recommended above trading idea to his clients, but no personal holdings.

Buy Tech Mahindra; target of Rs 3050: P Lilladher


"Tech Mahindra (TechM) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire SOFGEN Holdings Limited (SOFGEN). The transaction is expected to close by March 2015, subject to regulatory approvals. SOFGEN is a niche consultancy group with specialization in Private, Commercial and Retail Banking. Founded in 1999, SOFGEN's has 20 offices in 4 continents with strong presence in Asia Pacific, Latin America and Africa. 

The portfolio of service offerings are Multi‐Jurisdictional Tax Reporting, Liquidity Risk Analysis, Microfinance and additional core banking platforms." "SOFGEN has 450+ employees with 20+ Tier 1 client relationships. Delivering solutions “in and around” core banking the company has the 2nd largest pool of Avaloq consultants (Wealth Management Product) and is Temenos’ (Core Banking Software) most prolific partner.

 TechM will acquire SOFGEN for sub‐$30mn (1/3rd as earn‐outs paid over next 2 years depending on Revenue and Margin growth) in all cash deal and it will add revenue of $45mn with EBITDA margin of 8‐9% to TechM’s P&L." "We see this acquisition would strengthen presence of TechM in BFSI with new clients’ relationship.

 Moreover, new logos addition would provide cross selling opportunities. We retain our BUY rating with target price of Rs 3,050", says Prabhudas Lilladher research report.

Accumulate Asian Paints; target of Rs 747: P Lilladher


"APNT is one of the biggest beneficiaries of low crude prices as crude linked raw materials (including packaging) are 57% of input costs. We expect strong margin expansion for the coming couple of quarters, however extrapolating the same to FY17 looks too premature, given uncertainty regarding global crude oil prices. APNT had cut prices by 10% in 2009 and margin expansion in that cycle was led by excise duty reduction and acceleration in volume growth. We expect price cuts to materialise from 4QFY15.

 Our sensitivity analysis suggests that there is high probability of 40% EPS growth in FY16 whereas FY17 growth would be lower than current estimates due to higher margin in base quarter. We would wait for management commentary on product pricing and trend in crude oil prices before changing our estimates. We believe APNT is in a sweet spot due to huge growth opportunity in decorative paints given strong brand, distribution and innovations. 

We currently estimate 24% PAT CAGR over FY14‐17 and 21% PAT CAGR over FY15‐17. Retain Accumulate with a target price of Rs 747", says Prabhudas Lilladher research report.

Buy Infosys; target of Rs 2260: Kotak Securities


"Volume growth of 4.2% in a seasonally weak quarter was a surprise. Margins beat estimates but largely due to lower provisioning on doubtful debts. On important parameters, the annualized attrition rate has eased to 21.5% in 3Q v/s 25% in 2Q. Client penetration has also improved QoQ and 3 large deals have been signed. On newer initiatives, 9000 employees have been already trained on Design Thinking and 1000 developers on Machine Training. 

We believe that, these initiatives will shore up the growth rates of Infosys and sustain margins over the longer term, while having some impact on profitability in the short term. Guidance in CC terms has been maintained, we understand. With the developed economies growing / stabilizing, we do expect the demand scenario to improve over the next few quarters. 

Our FY16E EPS stands at Rs.122 (Rs.121) and TP at Rs.2260 (Rs.2239). ACCUMULATE (Buy at Declines)." We have been positive on the long-term demand prospects for quite some time. With the developed economies (especially US) stabilizing, we do expect the demand scenario to improve over the next few quarters. The margins for Infosys seem to be improving ahead of our expectations. 

The new strategy should allow Infosys to improve growth rates over the long term with sustained margins. "Our TP stands at Rs 2260. We recommend buying the stock at declines. ACCUMULATE", says Kotak Securities research report.

Buy Century Textiles; target Rs 560: Pritesh Mehta


Pritesh Mehta, Senior Technical Analyst at IIFL told CNBC-TV18, " Century Textiles and Industries  is ideal candidate for trend reversal because it has taken support at around Rs 500, following a sharp correction after making peak of Rs 594 in the third week of November.

This counter is on the verge of breaking out from an inverted head and shoulder pattern, also we can see an appearance of morning doji star candlestick. It tells us that the selling pressure has exhausted, the stock is on the verge of beginning a new up move altogether. So buy for a target of Rs 560," he added.

Accumulate SBI on any decline, says Mayuresh Joshi


Mayuresh Joshi of Angel Broking told CNBC-TV18, " State Bank of India  subsidiaries are probably responding to the news of a probable merger happening with State Bank of India. However, one really needs to see when and what price and how the whole thing happens. In my view probably State Bank of India is a much better bet within the PSU space." "The way we are looking at the NII growth for State Bank of India is going to be much better. Again from quarter earnings perspective the asset quality pressures would definitely ease on for bankers like State Bank. 

The management is probably doing the right moves. Again I think BFS portfolio is something that will lead the public sector banks in a big way. So, the treasury income is going to be substantial not just for State Bank of India but for most public sector banks," he added. "I think in terms of capital adequacy the bank is adequately sufficed to probably carrying on its balance sheet growth which means the operating leverage benefits would stay with State Bank.

 So, I would prefer investors with a long term view to probably stay with State Bank and probably accumulate the stock on any significant decline that one probably sees," he said.