Monday, July 23, 2012

Buy stocks of Hindustan Zinc; target of Rs 134

Hindustan Zinc:-

Hindustan Zinc (HZL) net sales at Rs27.1bn(-12.3%QoQ,-3.9%YoY) missed estimate primarily due to lower than expected refined metal ouput. Mined metal for Zinc declined by 4.3%YoY/17%QoQ to 162,000 tonnes as it continued to mine lower grade Zn ore at Rampura Agucha (RAM). However mined metal for Lead increased by 30.3%YoY as the production increased by 60%YoY at Sindesar Khurd mine. Silver sales also increased by 76%YoY/-2.7%QoQ to 72000 kgs due to commissioning of 350tonnes silver refinery at Pantnagar.”

HZL cost of production of Zinc (excluding royalty) was at Rs45,579 per tonne primarily due to increase in coal and other consumable cost. EBITDA declined by 10.8%YoY/13.9%QoQ to Rs13.93bn (DCe:Rs14.84bn) due to lower production and higher cost of production. Other income increased by 59.8%YoY/50.7%QoQ due to increase in treasury yields and investment surplus and one time mark to market gain of Rs1.2bn due to fall in interest yields. HZL tax rate has decreased to 12.9% (DCe:20%) primarily due to higher other income which was tax free. HZL profits rose by 12%YoY/5.8%QoQ to Rs15.8bn boosted by higher other income and lower tax rate despite lower operating profits. HZL maintained its production and sales guidance for the year and stated that the decline in grade at Agucha mines were as per its expectation. HZL expects to start the mining at 3 of its mines at Zawar in Q3FY13 which will add 30000 tonne MIC Lead production.”

HZL will continue to deliver strong free cash flows, despite higher spending on the mine development at Kayar and Rampura Agucha. HZL earnings growth will be driven by increase in silver and Lead volumes which will lead to earnings CAGR of 12% over FY12-14. HZL is currently trading at 4.4xFY13EV/EBITDA and 3.3xFY14EV/EBITDA. We maintain our Accumulate rating with a target price of Rs134 (5.5x FY13 EV/EBITDA),” says Dolat Capital research report. 

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