Thursday, August 2, 2012

Hold stocks of Maruti Suzuki; target of Rs 1175

Maruti Suzuki India:-


Maruti Suzuki India, Net sales stood at Rs 107.7 bn (+26% YoY, -8% QoQ), driven by volumes of 296k units (+5.1% YoY, -17.9% QoQ) and sharper than expected increase in realizations (+20% YoY, +11.9% QoQ). Export realizations showed a sharp increase (+19.9% YoY, +5.4% QoQ) aided by Rs 1 bn revenue from the Ertiga (FY13 mgmt target at Rs 4bn). EBIDTA stood at Rs 7.8 bn vs our est. of Rs 8 bn, 2% below estimates. EBIDTA margins stood at 7.3% vs our est. of 7.6%. RM Cost/Sales was lower by 180 bps QoQ on benefits of price hike and a richer product mix; however, 170 bps QoQ increase in other expenses largely offset the benefit. Adverse forex movement impacted royalty by 100 bps QoQ. Despite an in-line operational performance, net profit at Rs 4.2 bn was 10% below estimates owing to a lower other income (Rs 1.1bn vs Rs 1.8bn YoY).”

“Our TP on MSIL at 13xFY14E EPS of Rs 90 stands at Rs 1175. The stock is currently trading at 17.5x/12.3x FY13/FY14E earnings. In the near-term plant shutdown and currency remain key negative catalysts. We have upgraded the stock to HOLD largely owing to the recent underperformance but believe that the valuations still do not provide sufficient cushion,” says Emkay Global Financial Services research report. 

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